Space Goonz

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Japanese star Forever Young won the feature race, while all-sources wagering for the day totaled $13,997,422, according to BloodHorse.

The new Belmont is part of a major restructuring of the New York Racing Association’s operations, with Belmont replacing Aqueduct as the year-round home of downstate thoroughbred racing.

Aqueduct staged its final races June 28, ending a 132-year history at the Queens track. It remained open for simulcast wagering until September 7 before closing permanently.

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The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.

“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

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Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.