Gem Elevator

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With odds of 17% on Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams are the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. The probability translates to +488 in American odds, a figure that is regarded as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favourite. But history is not on the Rams’ side – all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.

In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.

Two other leagues, Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have each signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC that allows participating teams to partner with the operators.

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The four analysts arrive at much the same broad conclusion, albeit by different routes.

For Birkin, the share-price decline has gone well beyond the deterioration in earnings expectations. Fantini sees the industry’s great growth phase as largely behind it. Beynon’s focus is on what the market can see today: earnings and cash flow, rather than promises of future sportsbook growth. And for Robinson, the weakness is no longer simply a matter of valuation. It is increasingly showing up in the fundamentals themselves.

Nobody is predicting the end of gambling. The market is still growing. Good operators are still making money. New products are emerging.

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“Tax collection is part of the economic game and all sectors contribute,” Durigan said. “The same happens with betting.”

He argued the sector should be treated with the same rigour currently applied to cigarettes.

In an interview with Guilherme Amado’s column in Amado Mundo, Durigan said the government of Brazil and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had fulfilled what was defined in the law that established sports betting.