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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

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The regulator of gambling in New Zealand announced on Friday that the funds returned by operators will be directed towards community organisations.

Under Section 106 of New Zealand’s Gambling Act 2003, a class 4 licence holder, also known as a “corporate society” by the regulator, “must apply or distribute the net proceeds from class 4 gambling only to or for an authorised purpose specified in the corporate society’s licence”.

The DIA worked directly with class 4 gambling operators (commonly known as pokies trusts), and discovered ‘widespread issues’ such as cases where money that should have been available for community grants was instead spent on society expenses, such as the purchase of additional gaming machines.

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The ruling is the latest twist in a dispute dating to 2012 that has involved allegations of government interference, a failed settlement, and three international arbitration awards.

Baldwin and fellow casino entrepreneur Shawn Scott arrived in Laos in 2007 with ambitious plans to build a casino business aimed partly at customers crossing the country’s borders.

The pair established Sanum Investments and partnered with Laotian conglomerate ST Group. Baldwin later testified that the investors initially committed around $7.5 million to the venture, which envisaged two casino resorts and several slot clubs.