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The early player data is also giving Swipe Games confidence that it has created more than simply an eye-catching interface.

Yashin points particularly to comparisons with crash games, whose similarly short rounds make them a natural benchmark. A Swipe Games round lasts around eight to 10 seconds, but player behaviour can be markedly different.

Across markets in Latin America, Europe and Asia, Yashin says the average stakes for swipe games display a pattern closer to sports betting than crash gaming. In one market, the average Swipe Games bet was 20 times higher than the average crash-game bet with the same operator.

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Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.

A customer might buy a team at 55 or 56 cents expecting the price to rise to 58 or 59 cents, he explains. If it falls to 45 cents instead, the trader may refuse to accept the loss and continue holding the position.

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