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On Wednesday, a CFTC deputy general counsel posted an ad on LinkedIn for a senior position with the commission. It appears that the attorney is seeking assistance in crafting formal rules for event contracts, a set of regulations he described as the “most impactful” the commission has written “in decades”.
The Polymarket ad campaign debuted less than 48 hours before Wednesday’s NFL regular-season opener. The matchup is a rematch of last season’s Super Bowl as the Seattle Seahawks host the AFC Champion New England Patriots.
Last February in Santa Clara, the Seahawks held the Patriots scoreless through three quarters en route to a 29-13 win. That said, the defending champions are not the favourites to win the Lombardi Trophy this year. Nearly every US operator has installed the Los Angeles Rams as the overwhelming choice to capture the title.
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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
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If you’ve forgotten, Leeds and Villa played out a sensational match a couple of years ago in the Championship as Leeds scored by illegitimate means then were supposed to be letting Aston Villa score in response until Pontus Janssen didn’t read the memo.
Both sides are in decent form in general in the Premier League having returned in consecutive years. Aston Villa stayed up by the skin of their teeth in the 2019/20 season, but have kicked on under Dean Smith and in Grealish, Watkins and Traore, have some of the most dangerous attacking players in the Premier League.
Leeds, meanwhile, look set to survive in their first season back in the big time and with some room to spare, currently well clear of the relegation zone and looking more towards mid-table and possible European qualification along with their hosts on Saturday evening.
