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Enda Kendrick, chief executive of service provider Veltium, similarly says the largest UK and European sharp-betting groups have moved rapidly into US prediction markets. He believes there are also more than 100 smaller operations, ranging from individual traders to teams of around 10, interested in entering the regulated US market.
Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.
For Marantelli, the exchange format could also cause some customers to lose money faster than they would with a conventional sportsbook. The ability to enter and exit positions creates a perception of flexibility, but that optionality can encourage users to commit more of their bankroll.
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He also hinted at opportunities to expand both within and beyond its core market of South Africa.
On the earnings call, Bengtsson said Sun International viewed “plenty of inorganic opportunities” around the business.
“We have said that many times before,” he added. “I think it consists of multiple aspects. We are still open to and keen on consolidating minorities if there is opportunity that is being presented.
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Buffett has repeatedly raised concerns regarding the mainstreaming of gambling and its marketing under the guise of investing. In May, he targeted prediction markets and traders speculating on short-term instruments like 30-minute bitcoin options.
“If you’re buying or selling one-day options, that is not investing. It is not speculating. It is gambling,” Buffett said during an interview with CNBC. “There’s nobody who can explain why they’re buying an option for one day.”
Buffett, who built his fortune buying “wonderful businesses” at fair prices and holding them for the long term, believes the public has mistakenly adopted a get-rich-quick mindset.